Foreign exchange and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 21-25, 2023 – Analytics & Forecasts – 19 August 2023
14 min read
EUR/USD: What Strengthens the Greenback and What Can Weaken It
● The US forex maintained its ascent final week. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s July assembly of the US Federal Reserve had been printed on Wednesday, August 16, suggesting the potential for additional financial coverage tightening.
Earlier than the minutes had been unveiled, market gamers debated how lengthy the central rate of interest would linger at 5.5%. Nonetheless, as soon as the doc’s content material was revealed, discussions shifted to how way more this price might improve. A number of FOMC members expressed within the minutes that the present financial panorama may not see as important a lower in inflation as hoped. This sentiment paves the best way for the Fed to think about one other price hike. Because of this, the probability that the rate of interest might climb to five.75% and even greater in 2023 has surged from 27% to 37%, reinforcing the greenback’s place.
Different elements bolstering the US greenback embody the beneficial state of the securities market and the sturdy well being of the US financial system. Constructive retail gross sales figures prompted the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Atlanta to revise its Q3 GDP forecast for the nation, elevating it from 5.0% to five.8%. The true property market can be displaying promising indicators: the month-to-month issued building permits rose by 0.1%. Moreover, the development of recent properties elevated by 3.9%, reaching 1.452 million items, surpassing the projected 1.448 million. Retail gross sales statistics launched on August fifteenth additional supported the Greenback Index (DXY), with client exercise in July increasing by 0.7%: outpacing the anticipated 0.4% and the prior 0.2% determine. Collectively, these information factors underscore a diminishing danger of the US financial system getting into a recession, suggesting a possible continuation of the financial restriction section. Moreover, escalating oil costs would possibly nudge the regulator in direction of subsequent price hikes, doubtlessly spurring one other inflationary wave.
● Then again, the state of affairs within the US banking sector might pose challenges for the greenback. Neil Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Financial institution of Minneapolis, believes that the disaster that started in March, resulting in the chapter of a number of main banks, may not but be over. He opines that if the Federal Reserve continues to lift rates of interest, it would considerably complicate the operations of banks and will set off a brand new wave of bankruptcies. This angle is echoed by analysts at Fitch Scores. Their projections even think about the potential for downgrading the rankings of a number of US banks, together with giants like JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Strategists at Goldman Sachs imagine that the Federal Reserve would possibly solely think about decreasing the important thing price in Q2 2024. A possible set off for this transfer may very well be the inflation price stabilizing on the goal stage of two.0%. Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that the actions of the regulator stay unpredictable, which suggests the speed might keep at peak ranges for a extra prolonged interval. General, in accordance with the CME FedWatch Software, 68% of market contributors anticipate that by Might 2024, the speed can be lowered by a minimum of 25 foundation factors (b.p.).
● Relating to the Eurozone’s financial system, information printed on August sixteenth confirmed that it grew by 0.3% (quarter-on-quarter) for Q2 2023. This determine aligns completely with predictions and matches the expansion price of Q1. On an annual foundation, the GDP development stood at 0.6%, which is in step with each forecasts and the earlier quarter’s numbers. The inflation figures launched on Friday, August 18, had been additionally unsurprising. They matched each market expectations and former figures. In July, the Core Shopper Worth Index (CPI) was recorded at 5.5% (year-on-year) and -0.1% (month-on-month).
Amid such persistently modest financial efficiency, the euro continues to face downward strain. Components contributing to this embody the potential vitality disaster in Europe this upcoming winter and uncertainties surrounding the financial coverage of the European Central Financial institution (ECB).
● Beginning the five-day buying and selling interval at 1.0947, EUR/USD closed at 1.0872. As of the night of August 18, when this evaluation was written, 50% of analysts predict an increase for the pair within the close to future, 35% favour the greenback, and the remaining 15% preserve a impartial stance. Relating to oscillators on the D1 timeframe, 100% are leaning in direction of the US forex, however 25% of them point out that the pair is oversold. Development indicators present 85% pointing southward, whereas the remaining 15% look north. The closest help ranges for the pair lie within the vary of 1.0845-1.0865, adopted by 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0620-1.0635, and 1.0525. Bulls will encounter resistance within the vary of 1.0895-1.0925, then at 1.0985, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1150-1.1170, 1.1230, 1.1275-1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.
● Subsequent week, the highlight can be on the symposium of heads of main central banks in Jackson Gap, going down from August 24 to 26. If the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, even hints on the imminent conclusion of the present rate-hike cycle in his speech on August 25, the DXY (Greenback Index) would possibly flip downward. Nonetheless, it is evident that forex pair dynamics may also rely upon what leaders of different central banks say, naturally together with ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Different notable occasions for the week embody the discharge of US labour market information on August 22 and 23. On Wednesday, August 23, enterprise exercise indicators (PMI) for america, Germany, and the Eurozone can be disclosed. Moreover, on Thursday, August 24, statistics on sturdy items orders and unemployment within the US can be made out there.
GBP/USD: BoE’s Indecision – A Catastrophe for the Pound
● GBP/USD has oscillated inside the 1.2620-1.2800 vary for the previous two and a half weeks, with neither bulls nor bears establishing a transparent higher hand. Regardless of the Financial institution of England (BoE) just lately elevating rates of interest, bullish momentum for the pound stays elusive.
There’s rising concern amongst market stakeholders that an aggressive financial coverage tightening might additional destabilize the UK’s already fragile financial system, which teeters getting ready to recession. In July, the unemployment price rose notably by 0.2%, settling at 4.2%. Extra worryingly, youth unemployment surged by 0.9%, shifting from 11.4% to 12.3%. Moreover, there was a rise of 25K in these claiming unemployment advantages in comparison with the prior month. This rise in unemployment will be largely attributed to the wave of enterprise bankruptcies that initiated in 2021. This development noticed a stark acceleration in early 2022, matching ranges witnessed solely through the late Nineteen Eighties disaster and the 2008 monetary meltdown.
As per the most recent information launched by the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics (ONS) on August 18, retail gross sales within the UK for July declined by 1.2% on a month-to-month foundation, a extra important drop than the 0.6% seen the earlier month. On an annual foundation, there was a 3.2% contraction, in comparison with the 1.6% lower noticed in June.
● The inflation information (CPI) launched on August 16 signifies that regardless of dropping from 7.9% to six.8% year-on-year (YoY), inflation stays notably excessive. Furthermore, the core price remained regular at 6.9%. The rising value of vitality might doubtlessly result in an additional inflationary surge.
The market firmly believes that the Financial institution of England should take acceptable motion in response. The central financial institution would possibly must proceed growing charges not solely this 12 months however doubtlessly into 2024. Nonetheless, as economists from Commerzbank recommend, if within the coming weeks the market will get the impression that the BoE is wavering in its dedication to sort out inflationary dangers for worry of hampering the financial system an excessive amount of, it might have catastrophic implications for the pound.
● GBP/USD closed at 1.2735 n Friday, August 18. Consultants’ forecast for the close to future is as follows: 60% lean bullish on the pound, 20% are bearish, and the remaining 20% desire a impartial stance. On the D1 oscillators, 50% are colored crimson, indicating a bearish development, whereas the opposite 50% are in a impartial grey. For development indicators, the ratio of crimson to inexperienced is 60% to 40%, favouring the bullish aspect.
Ought to the pair transfer downward, it would encounter help ranges and zones at 1.2675-1.2690, 1.2620, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. If the pair ascends, resistance can be met at 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, and 1.3605.
● When it comes to macroeconomic information, Wednesday, August 23 would be the “PMI day” not just for Europe and the USA but in addition for the UK, as enterprise exercise indicators in numerous sectors of the British financial system can be launched. And, after all, one can’t overlook concerning the annual symposium in Jackson Gap.
USD/JPY: Anticipating Forex Interventions
● The discharge of the FOMC minutes and the rise in yields of 10-year U.S. Treasuries to ranges not seen since 2008 propelled USD/JPY even greater, reaching 146.55. As famous by economists from Japan’s MUFG Financial institution, “The greenback’s strengthening has pushed USD/JPY right into a hazard zone the place the danger of intervention to halt its upward motion is growing.” Colleagues from the Dutch banking group ING concur that the pair is now within the territory of forex interventions. “Nonetheless,” ING believes, “it probably lacks the mandatory volatility to alarm Japanese officers.”
Recall that the Ministry of Finance (MOF) had intervened in USD/JPY at ranges above 145.90 final September. However presently, neither the Ministry of Finance nor the Financial institution of Japan (BoJ) are in a rush to defend the home forex. Opposite to the U.S., Eurozone, and the UK, the place inflation is on a decline (albeit at completely different charges), inflation in Japan is on the rise. On Friday, August 18, the nation’s Statistical Bureau printed the Nationwide Shopper Worth Index (CPI) for July, which stood at 3.3%, whereas a results of 2.5% (year-on-year) was anticipated.
● Commerzbank analysts do not see a lot likelihood for the yen to understand once more, although the nation’s GDP is rising. (Preliminary information signifies development within the second quarter was at 1.5% (year-on-year) in comparison with a forecast of 0.8% and a earlier price of 0.9%). Quite the opposite, there are considerations that underneath present situations, the yen might weaken additional if the Ministry of Finance would not take motion to halt the decline. “Maybe the Financial institution of Japan and the Ministry of Finance are hoping the state of affairs will shift as soon as U.S. rates of interest start to drop once more,” Commerzbank economists recommend. “We additionally anticipate a weakening of the greenback at that time. Nonetheless, that second remains to be a while away. The one factor the Ministry of Finance will obtain with its interventions up till then is to purchase time. In our view, going in opposition to the prevailing winds can’t achieve strengthening the yen. It would work briefly, however that is not a certainty.”.
● Nonetheless, market contributors are rising more and more involved {that a} weak yen would possibly sooner or later immediate motion from Japanese officers. As urged by ING, the oversold standing of the Japanese forex coupled with the specter of interventions will probably exacerbate any bearish corrections in USD/JPY. It was following such a correction, albeit a modest one, that the pair concluded the previous week at a stage of 145.37.
● Relating to the near-term outlook, the median forecast from specialists is as follows: An amazing majority (60%) anticipates the greenback to strengthen and expects USD/JPY to proceed its upward trajectory. The remaining 40% anticipate a bearish correction. On the D1 oscillators, a full 100% are coloured inexperienced, though 20% point out overbought situations. For the development indicators, 80% are in inexperienced whereas 20% are in crimson. The closest help stage is located on the 144.50 zone, adopted by 143.75-144.04, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, and 137.25-137.50. Speedy resistance lies at 145.75-146.10, then 146.55, 146.90-147.15, 148.45, 150.00, and eventually, the October 2022 excessive of 151.95.
● The Shopper Worth Index (CPI) for the Tokyo area can be launched on Friday, August 25. No different important information releases pertaining to the state of the Japanese financial system are scheduled for the upcoming week.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: How Elon Musk Crashed the “Folks’s Greenback”
● From July 14, the first cryptocurrency, and the digital asset market as an entire, have been underneath the strain of a strengthening greenback. Clearly, when the load on the BTC/USD scale ideas in direction of the greenback, bitcoin turns into lighter. Actually, from August 11 to fifteen, it appeared as if the market had utterly forgotten about cryptocurrencies, with the BTC/USD pair’s chart thinly stretching from west to east, hugging the Pivot Level of $29,400.
Glassnode analysts famous on the time that the digital gold market had reached a section of maximum apathy and exhaustion. Volatility metrics originally of the week hit file lows, with the Bollinger Bands unfold narrowing to 2.9%. Such low ranges had been solely seen twice in historical past: in September 2016 and January 2023. “The market must take steps to…break the investor apathy,” concluded Glassnode specialists.
● Such actions had been taken, although not essentially within the path traders would have most well-liked. The primary transfer occurred on the night of August 16 when BTC/USD dropped to $28,533. This decline was probably triggered by the publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July assembly, as talked about earlier. However that modest setback wasn’t the tip of it. The subsequent important drop occurred on the evening of August 17 to 18. It may be described as a plunge into the abyss, with bitcoin reaching a low of $24,296. The crash got here after The Wall Avenue Journal, citing undisclosed paperwork, reported that Elon Musk’s SpaceX had liquidated its BTC holdings, accounting for a $373 million markdown in cryptocurrency. Nonetheless, the report didn’t specify when precisely SpaceX had offered these cash. Nonetheless, such particulars aren’t essential to ignite panic out there.
A number of different occasions additionally added strain to the quotations. For example, a U.S. Federal Courtroom granted the Securities and Trade Fee’s (SEC) enchantment in opposition to Ripple, casting doubt on a partial resolution made in favour of Ripple a month prior. The continued sequence of authorized claims by U.S. authorities in opposition to main cryptocurrency exchanges stays one other destructive affect.
● Bitcoin’s nosedive dragged the complete crypto market down with it, resulting in a mass liquidation of open margin positions. In accordance with Coinglass, over a 24-hour span, positions of greater than 175,000 market contributors had been liquidated, leading to merchants’ losses surpassing $1 billion.
The state of affairs might have been a lot graver had it not been for a report from Bloomberg stating that the SEC was making ready to authorize the creation of the primary futures ETFs for Ethereum. Because of this, BTC/USD and ETH/USD corrected upwards, returning to ranges seen two months prior. As a reminder, the market soared on June 15 after BlackRock filed an utility to ascertain a spot bitcoin ETF. Nonetheless, after the current plunge, these positive factors had been just about erased.
● Ought to we anticipate additional declines? Notably, a dealer and analyst recognized by the pseudonym Dave_the_Wave, famend for his correct forecasts, had warned that by the tip of 2023, bitcoin might drop to the decrease boundary of its Logarithmic Progress Curve (LGC), implying a roughly 38% drop from this 12 months’s peak. In such a situation, the underside can be round $19,700.
One other well-known dealer, Tone Vays, didn’t rule out a drop in BTC to $25,000 (which has already occurred). On this case, Vays believes there is a excessive probability of an additional long-term decline. From his perspective, the premier cryptocurrency is “teetering on the sting, and issues look bleak.” “The value must reverse instantly, I imply – this month. We can’t afford one other month of decline; in any other case, panic will set out there. I would not be stunned if BTC trades beneath $20,000. Miners would possibly even start offloading their holdings, which is very precarious,” Vays cautions.
Now we have beforehand talked about one other skilled, Michael Van De Poppe, founding father of the enterprise firm Eight, who has refuted claims of BTC’s worth dropping to the $12,000 mark. Nonetheless, in his view, for bitcoin to return to lively development, it must surpass the $29,700 stage. The subsequent important goal for the coin can be $40,000.
● In distinction to Michael Van De Poppe, Kevin Kelly, co-founder, and head of analysis at Delphi Digital, has already noticed early indicators of a bull rally. Nonetheless, this commentary was made earlier than the stoop on August 18. In accordance with Kelly, a typical crypto cycle begins when bitcoin reaches an all-time excessive (ATH), adopted by an 80% decline. Roughly two years later, it rebounds to its earlier ATH and continues climbing to a brand new peak. This sequence usually spans round 4 years.
Kelly believes this sample is not random however aligns with a “broader enterprise cycle.” He famous that bitcoin’s worth peak typically coincides with the ISM manufacturing index, which presently seems to be within the remaining section of its downturn. The present state of affairs reminds Kelly of the market dynamics between 2015 and 2017.
He highlighted that the final two bitcoin halvings occurred roughly 18 months after the asset bottomed out and about seven months earlier than it broke its historic peak. The subsequent halving is anticipated in April 2024. After which, about six months later by the skilled’s estimates, the digital gold would possibly attain its ATH. Nonetheless, Kelly warned that there aren’t any ensures of this situation unfolding. He additionally speculated about the potential for a “false backside.”
The same cyclical evaluation was carried out by an analyst often known as Ignas, predicting a bitcoin bull market in 2024. His calculation relies on the sample that the first cryptocurrency has showcased for a few years: 1. An 80% dip from ATH, lowest level a 12 months later (This autumn 2022). 2. Two years for restoration and reaching the earlier peak (This autumn 2024). 3. One other 12 months of worth development resulting in a brand new ATH (This autumn 2025).
In accordance with Ignas, the crypto business confronted macroeconomic challenges in 2022, however the state of affairs is now bettering. The bitcoin halving in April 2024 would possibly align with a worldwide liquidity surge, fuelling the anticipated bull rally. Moreover, new use instances for bitcoin and the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, as soon as authorized by the SEC, will affect its worth.
From a survey carried out by the favored blogger and analyst often known as PlanB, 60% of respondents imagine in a bull market’s onset post-halving. PlanB himself theorizes that by the point of this occasion, BTC can be priced round $55,000. Alerts from his bitcoin worth prediction mannequin, S2F, trace on the coin’s potential motion in direction of this determine.
● Robert Kiyosaki, investor, and creator of the monetary bestseller “Wealthy Dad Poor Dad” made one other prediction. “Bitcoin is heading to $100,000,” Kiyosaki believes. “The dangerous information: if the inventory and bond market crashes, gold and silver costs will skyrocket. Worse, if the worldwide financial system collapses. Then bitcoin can be value one million, gold will be purchased for $75,000, and silver for $60,000. The nationwide debt is just too nice. Everyone seems to be in bother,” wrote Kiyosaki. However he added, simply in case, “I hope I am unsuitable.”
Fittingly for a author, Kiyosaki metaphorically known as gold and silver “God’s cash” and bitcoin the “folks’s greenback”. “I like bitcoin as a result of we have now a typical enemy – the US federal authorities, the treasury, the Federal Reserve, and Wall Avenue. I do not belief them. When you belief, then gather {dollars}, and you will get an IOU,” he mentioned.
● It is value noting that, in distinction to Robert Kiyosaki’s stance, many traders have just lately been gravitating in direction of the US greenback as a substitute of the “folks’s forex.” They view the greenback as a extra dependable safe-haven asset. This shift is obvious when evaluating the DXY and BTC charts. On the time of this evaluation, on the night of August 18, the market has proven some indicators of stabilization, with the BTC/USD buying and selling near $26,100. The entire market capitalization of cryptocurrencies took a major hit, narrowly sustaining above the psychological threshold of $1 trillion, registering at $1.054 trillion, down from $1.171 trillion only a week prior. Not surprisingly, the Crypto Concern & Greed Index additionally noticed a decline, shifting from the Impartial class into the Concern territory, marking a rating of 37, a drop from final week’s 51 factors.
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